Andorra vs Iraq
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andorra Win Value | 6/1 7.20 | 13% | 27% | +14% |
| Draw Value | 3/1 3.93 | 24% | 37% | +13% |
| Iraq Win | 4/9 1.47 | 63% | 36% | -27% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 8 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Iraq (63% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- ⏱️ Rest advantage: Andorra (192d) vs Iraq (167d) — Andorra significantly fresher
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Andorra averaging 1.55 scored / 1.75 conceded; Iraq averaging 1.37 scored / 1.28 conceded — Iraq more defensively reliable
H2H: Limited data available between these two nations
Stakes: Friendly match, both sides well-rested (192 vs 167 days); no relegation/promotion pressure — slight motivation edge to Iraq maintaining form ahead of competitive cycle
Betting: BTTS unlikely given Iraq's tight defensive record and Andorra's low xG of 0.79 at home; Under 2.5 supported by both teams' low xG outputs and a defensive-leaning model
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — no meaningful H2H history to significantly influence prediction.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Andorra are predicted to not score as Iraq's defence has been solid (1.28 avg conceded, recent clean sheets in 0-1 and 0-2 wins) and Andorra's xG of 0.79 is modest. Iraq's attacking quality, while modest, is sufficient to find one goal against a home side that has conceded in several recent fixtures.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Total goals predicted at 1 (0-1), well under 2.5. Both teams carry low xG values (0.79 and 0.75), this is a low-stakes friendly, and Iraq's defensive discipline points to a tight, controlled affair rather than an open, high-scoring game.