Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München Win Value | 2/5 1.39 | 68% | 74% | +6% |
| Draw | 9/2 5.66 | 17% | 16% | -1% |
| VfB Stuttgart Win | 11/2 6.35 | 15% | 10% | -5% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 Knockout fixture — both teams fully motivated
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Bayern 10-game form WWDDLWWWWW with avg 3.38 goals scored at home; Stuttgart away form DDLWL with 40% overall win rate
H2H: Bayern won 7 of last 8, avg 4 goals/game, dominated recent meetings 4-2, 5-0, 2-1, 3-1, 4-0
Stakes: DFB Pokal knockout — both fully motivated, elimination on the line, business end of season
Betting: BTTS likely given Stuttgart's attacking output (2.51 avg) and Bayern's occasional defensive lapses (1.8 conceded avg); Over 2.5 strongly supported by H2H averaging 4 goals/game and Bayern's xG of 4.5
⚔️ Head to Head
Bayern have been utterly dominant in recent H2H, winning 7 of 8 meetings with an average of 4 goals per game. Recent scorelines of 4-2, 5-0, 3-1 and 4-0 all point to high-scoring Bayern victories at this venue.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Stuttgart average 2.51 goals per game and have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches; even against a strong Bayern side they are capable of finding the net, as shown in the April 2026 meeting where they scored twice. Bayern's defence, while solid, has conceded in several recent fixtures and Stuttgart will find at least one opening.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The H2H average of 4 goals per game, Bayern's xG of 4.5, and Stuttgart's attacking output all strongly point to a high-scoring game well over 2.5 goals. The statistical model's top scorelines all feature 5 or more total goals, and the knockout stage ensures full attacking intent from both sides.