Colombia vs Costa Rica
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia Win Value | 1/7 1.15 | 81% | 90% | +9% |
| Draw | 6/1 6.82 | 13% | 7% | -6% |
| Costa Rica Win | 16/1 17.00 | 6% | 3% | -3% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Colombia WWDW with 3.6 avg goals scored and only 0.45 conceded — dominant home record. Costa Rica DDWWWWL overall but DDWL away, conceding heavily.
H2H: Colombia won 2 of last 3 meetings, including a 3-0 in June 2024. Average 4 goals/game in H2H — high-scoring trend favors goals.
Stakes: International friendly but both squads fully available; Colombia playing at home with full motivation ahead of World Cup qualifying cycle.
Betting: BTTS unlikely — Colombia's defence has conceded just 0.45 goals/game recently and Costa Rica's attack struggles away from home. Over 2.5 is firmly supported by xG model, H2H averages, and Colombia's prolific attack.
⚔️ Head to Head
Colombia dominant at home in H2H — won 3-0 and 3-1 in last two home meetings. The only CRC win came away in 2016. Average of 4 goals per game across last 3 meetings reinforces expectation of a high-scoring Colombia victory.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Costa Rica is unlikely to score given Colombia's exceptional defensive record of just 0.45 goals conceded per game in recent form, and CRC's poor away performances (DDWL). The xG model gives Costa Rica just 0.75, and in the last H2H Colombia kept a clean sheet. Colombia's defence should shut Costa Rica out entirely.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
Over 2.5 goals is strongly supported — Colombia averages 3.6 goals scored per game, the statistical model projects 4.5 xG for the home side alone, and H2H matches average 4 goals per game. A 4-0 scoreline comfortably clears the 2.5 threshold.