Croatia vs Belgium
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia Win | 13/8 2.62 | 36% | 32% | -4% |
| Draw Value | 5/2 3.40 | 28% | 38% | +10% |
| Belgium Win | 13/8 2.60 | 36% | 30% | -6% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Both sides average 1 scored, 1 conceded, 50% win rate — perfectly balanced
H2H: Last 2 meetings: 0-0 and 1-0 — defensively cautious encounters, neutral dominance
Stakes: International friendly with both squads fully available; no relegation/promotion pressure — moderate motivation only
Betting: BTTS supported by even xG split and both teams' scoring averages; Under 2.5 backed by low H2H goal record and model-leading 0-0/1-0 scorelines offset by friendly context
⚔️ Head to Head
Only 2 recent meetings — both tight and low-scoring (0-0 in 2022, 1-0 to Belgium in 2021). Neutral dominance with Croatia yet to score in this H2H run.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Both teams carry genuine attacking threat — Croatia's ELO edge is marginal and Belgium's xG (0.75) is nearly identical to Croatia's (0.79). With full squads available and both sides averaging 1 goal scored per game, each team has a realistic chance of finding the net in a balanced friendly.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The model's top scorelines are dominated by low-scoring outcomes and H2H meetings have averaged just 0.5 goals per game. Both teams' defensive records are solid (1 conceded per game average) and the friendly context does not incentivise high-risk attacking play, making under 2.5 goals the more probable outcome.