Croatia vs Slovenia

Sun 7 Jun 2026

Final Score

2 – 1

Our prediction got the result right

✓ Result

✗ Exact score

✗ BTTS

✗ Over 2.5

CleverScores Prediction

1 – 0

Home Win High

Croatia

39%

Draw

37%

Slovenia

24%

💰 Finding the Value

Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.

Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Edge
Croatia Win	4/11 1.36	69%	39%	-30%
Draw Value	7/2 4.60	20%	37%	+17%
Slovenia Win Value	8/1 9.00	11%	24%	+13%

2 value markets identified in this fixture.

Edge is the gap between our model probability and the bookmaker consensus. A +5% or larger edge means we think this outcome is meaningfully more likely than the market does. Odds shown are the median across all bookies in both fractional (UK) and decimal formats — always verify current prices with your bookmaker. Predictions are for information only and are not financial advice.

📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree

Across 11 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Croatia (69% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.

We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.

View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff

🔍 Key Stats

Form: Croatia moderate (50% win rate, 1 goal avg scored/conceded); Slovenia in-form (100% win rate recent, but small sample)
H2H: 3 meetings — 1 Croatia win, 1 draw, 1 Slovenia win; avg 2 goals/game, historically tight
Stakes: International friendly — moderate motivation for both sides, no competitive pressure
Betting: BTTS unlikely given Croatia's defensive solidity at home and Slovenia's limited xG (0.75); Under 2.5 supported by low xG totals (combined 1.54) and friendly context reducing intensity

⚔️ Head to Head

Recent H2H is evenly split (W/D/L) with all three results in last 3 meetings. Low-scoring trend with an average of 2 goals per game and no side dominating.

🎲 Betting Tips

Both Teams to Score: No
Slovenia concede just 0.4 goals on average and Croatia's attacking xG is only 0.79, suggesting Croatia may struggle to score freely. However, Croatia's defensive record also allows 1 goal per game on average. The prediction is 1-0 — Croatia find a single goal while Slovenia's attack, limited in output despite recent wins over weaker opposition, is shut out by a well-organised Croatian defence at home.

Over 2.5 Goals: No
Total goals of 1 in the projected 1-0 scoreline falls below the 2.5-goal line. The engine projects a controlled, lower-scoring contest.

CleverScore confidence: High

Predictions are AI-generated from form data, head-to-head history, and contextual signals. Football is unpredictable — never bet more than you can afford to lose. 18+. BeGambleAware.org