Denmark vs Ukraine
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark Win Value | 4/6 1.70 | 55% | 84% | +29% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.60 | 26% | 9% | -17% |
| Ukraine Win | 4/1 5.00 | 19% | 7% | -12% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 11 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Denmark (55% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Denmark in dominant home form (W-W, 5-0 and 2-1), Ukraine W-L overall with shaky away defence
H2H: Limited data available for recent meetings
Stakes: International friendly — lower competitive motivation on both sides, though Denmark will want a positive performance on home soil
Betting: BTTS unlikely given Denmark's near-perfect defensive record (avg 0.36 conceded) and Ukraine's poor away attacking output; Over 2.5 supported by Denmark's prolific attack averaging 2.72 goals and xG of 4.5
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — insufficient recent H2H history to establish a reliable trend between these two sides.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The 3-1 scoreline projects both teams scoring. The engine's underlying probability model gives both sides enough offensive output to find the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
Denmark's xG of 4.5 and their scoring average of 2.72 goals per game strongly indicate they will exceed 2.5 goals on their own. Even in a friendly context with reduced intensity, Denmark's attacking quality against Ukraine's leaky away defence makes over 2.5 total goals the most probable outcome.