Ecuador vs Guatemala
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ecuador Win Value | 1/6 1.18 | 79% | 90% | +11% |
| Draw | 11/2 6.35 | 14% | 7% | -7% |
| Guatemala Win | 14/1 15.00 | 7% | 3% | -4% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Ecuador inconsistent recently (WDDD) but dominant at home vs weaker sides; Guatemala leaky defensively (1.97 conceded/game)
H2H: Ecuador 2-0 in both meetings, no goals conceded across 2 games
Stakes: Friendly, but ELO gap of 435 reflects a clear professional vs developing-nation mismatch
Betting: BTTS unlikely given H2H shutout pattern and Guatemala's attacking limitations away vs elite sides; Over 2.5 likely given Ecuador's attacking output and xG of 4.5
⚔️ Head to Head
Ecuador have won both H2H meetings 2-0, keeping clean sheets on each occasion — a strong signal that Guatemala struggle to score against this opposition.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Guatemala have failed to score in both previous meetings against Ecuador, and their away record against high-ELO opponents suggests they will be shut out again. Ecuador's defence has conceded just 0.27 goals per game recently, reinforcing the likelihood that Guatemala finish scoreless.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
Ecuador's xG of 4.5 and a 435-point ELO advantage over Guatemala strongly supports a multi-goal Ecuador performance. With Guatemala's porous defence conceding nearly 2 goals per game and Ecuador dominant at home, total goals going over 2.5 is well-supported.