Flamengo vs Coritiba
📝 Match Recap
Flamengo dominated Coritiba on home soil to secure a comprehensive 3-0 victory, though the margin of victory was ultimately steeper than our pre-match model anticipated. Samuel Lino set the tone early, opening the scoring in the 11th minute with an assist from Pedro, establishing Flamengo's attacking intent from kickoff. The decisive moment came in the 36th minute when Coritiba's Pedro Rocha received a red card, reducing the visitors to ten men and fundamentally shifting the match's complexion. Flamengo capitalized on their numerical advantage, with Pedro doubling the lead in the 60th minute—Lino returning the favor with the assist—before Lino sealed the result in the 70th minute, this time assisted by Ayrton Lucas.
Our prediction of a 3-1 scoreline proved directionally sound but missed the defensive solidity Flamengo would display. The 71% win probability for the home side reflected their title-race positioning and superior home form, factors that held up across the ninety minutes. However, we'd flagged Both Teams to Score as supported by Coritiba's away-scoring record and projected xG totals; the red card fundamentally altered Coritiba's capacity to threaten, leaving them unable to capitalize on their occasional chances. Flamengo's 50% home win rate and 1.6 goals-per-game average proved conservative given how comprehensively they controlled proceedings once reduced to ten men.
The result underscores how in-match events—particularly disciplinary decisions—can reshape pre-match statistical expectations. Our model captured Flamengo's likelihood of victory but underestimated the degree to which losing Pedro Rocha would neuter Coritiba's attacking threat and allow the hosts to operate with increased freedom.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo Win Value | 4/9 1.44 | 65% | 71% | +6% |
| Draw | 7/2 4.60 | 21% | 18% | -3% |
| Coritiba Win | 11/2 6.50 | 14% | 11% | -3% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 Flamengo in title race (P2)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Flamengo 50% win rate at home, avg 1.6 goals scored; Coritiba 30% win rate, avg 1.79 scored but 1.6 conceded
H2H: Flamengo 7/8 wins, avg 2.4 goals/game, home dominant pattern
Stakes: Flamengo in title race (P2) — elevated motivation vs Coritiba mid-table (P6)
Betting: BTTS supported by Coritiba's away scoring record and Flamengo's defensive vulnerability; Over 2.5 supported by xG total of 4.47 and H2H averaging 2.4 goals with higher-scoring recent meetings
⚔️ Head to Head
Flamengo have won 7 of the last 8 meetings including 3-0, 2-0, 2-0 in recent home fixtures — clear and consistent home dominance in this fixture.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Coritiba have scored in away matches and average 1.79 goals per game overall; despite key Flamengo absences weakening their defense, Flamengo's own attacking depth should see them score multiple times — both teams finding the net is the most likely outcome given Coritiba's ability to threaten on the break.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The combined xG of 4.47, Flamengo's title-race intensity, H2H average of 2.4 goals (with several high-scoring meetings), and Coritiba's attacking output all strongly support the total exceeding 2.5 goals in this fixture.