Kyrgyzstan vs Palestine
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrgyzstan Win | 6/4 2.50 | 37% | 29% | -8% |
| Draw Value | 2/1 3.06 | 30% | 48% | +18% |
| Palestine Win | 7/4 2.80 | 33% | 23% | -10% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Kyrgyzstan winless in last 3 (LLD), low scoring avg 1.1; Palestine inconsistent (LDDWDLLWLL) but defensively compact at 0.68 goals scored avg
H2H: 3 of last 4 meetings ended as draws or 1-0, avg 2 goals/game, draw-prone pattern confirmed
Stakes: Friendly with nothing at stake for either side — both mid-table equivalents, draw motivation is neutral
Betting: BTTS supported by H2H trend of both teams scoring in 2 of 4 recent meetings; Under 2.5 favoured given low xG totals (0.79 + 0.75) and Palestine's defensive record
⚔️ Head to Head
3 of the last 4 H2H meetings have been draws or narrow 1-0 results, with an average of 2 goals per game — firmly draw-prone and low-scoring.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Both teams have scored in recent H2H encounters (2-2 in 2019, 1-1 in 2018), and despite Kyrgyzstan's poor form they managed a goal in 2 of their last 3 games. Palestine's attack, while limited, is capable of finding the net in tight matches, supporting both teams getting on the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Combined xG of just 1.54 and both teams' low scoring averages point firmly toward under 2.5 goals. H2H averages only 2 goals per game, Palestine's defensive structure limits open play, and the friendly context reduces risk-taking — making a tight 1-1 the most probable outcome well under the 2.5 threshold.