Mexico vs Serbia
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico Win | 1/4 1.25 | 74% | 36% | -38% |
| Draw Value | 9/2 5.55 | 17% | 40% | +23% |
| Serbia Win Value | 10/1 11.00 | 9% | 24% | +15% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 13 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Mexico (74% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Mexico averaging just 0.75 goals scored per game in recent outings with several draws and losses; Serbia has limited tracked form data
H2H: Limited data available
Stakes: International friendly — neither side has competitive pressure, reducing motivation for both attacks
Betting: BTTS unlikely given Mexico's defensive solidity (0.61 conceded avg) and Serbia's weak away record; Under 2.5 favoured given low xG totals and both sides' tendency toward tight, low-scoring results
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data available between Mexico and Serbia in recent history.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The 2-1 scoreline projects both teams scoring. The engine's underlying probability model gives both sides enough offensive output to find the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Total goals of 3 in the projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal line. The engine sees enough attacking output combined between the two sides.