Myanmar vs Guam
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myanmar Win | 1/10 1.11 | 84% | 42% | -42% |
| Draw Value | 7/1 8.50 | 11% | 35% | +24% |
| Guam Win Value | 16/1 17.00 | 5% | 23% | +18% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 11 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Myanmar (84% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Myanmar recent draw (1-1), low-scoring pattern; Guam mixed LW form, conceding heavily in losses
H2H: Limited data available
Stakes: Friendly match with no competitive stakes — neutral motivation for both sides
Betting: Bookmaker overwhelmingly favours Myanmar home win; low xG values point to under 2.5 goals; Guam's inconsistency away suggests they may struggle to find the net here
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Myanmar are expected to edge this as narrow home favourites, and Guam's attacking output (1.8 avg goals scored) does carry some threat, but in friendly fixtures with low xG on both sides and Myanmar's defensive solidity (0.8 avg conceded), Guam are unlikely to break through against an organised home side. A clean sheet for Myanmar is the more probable outcome given the implied probability gap.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Both teams carry modest attacking threat with Myanmar averaging just 0.8 goals scored and xG values below 0.8 each. The Poisson model's top scoreline is 0-0 and 1-0 dominates the probability distribution. With a friendly context reducing intensity and total expected goals under 1.6, this match is firmly projected to finish under 2.5 goals.