Pakistan vs Afghanistan
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan Win | 7/4 2.75 | 34% | 31% | -3% |
| Draw Value | 7/4 2.77 | 34% | 40% | +6% |
| Afghanistan Win | 15/8 2.84 | 32% | 29% | -3% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Pakistan limited data but 50% win rate; Afghanistan winless in last 4, poor defensive record away
H2H: Pakistan unbeaten in all 3 meetings, including a recent 2-0 win; avg 1.3 goals per game — low-scoring pattern
Stakes: Friendly match — moderate motivation, but Pakistan playing at home with slight edge
Betting: BTTS unlikely given Afghanistan's goal drought (0.38 avg scored); Under 2.5 strongly supported by low xG and H2H history
⚔️ Head to Head
Pakistan unbeaten across the last 3 meetings (W1 D2), with two clean sheets in recent encounters. The fixture consistently produces low goal tallies, averaging just 1.3 goals per game.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Afghanistan have scored just 0.38 goals per game recently and were blanked in three of their last four matches. Pakistan's defence has kept clean sheets in two of the last three H2H meetings, making it unlikely Afghanistan find the net here.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Both teams carry very low xG (Pakistan 0.79, Afghanistan 0.75), the H2H average is only 1.3 goals per game, and Afghanistan's attack is severely out of form. All indicators point firmly toward under 2.5 goals in this fixture.