Scotland vs Curaçao
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland Win | 1/5 1.19 | 78% | 43% | -35% |
| Draw Value | 5/1 6.00 | 15% | 35% | +20% |
| Curaçao Win Value | 12/1 14.00 | 7% | 22% | +15% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 11 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Scotland (78% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- ⏱️ Rest advantage: Scotland (354d) vs Curaçao (339d) — Scotland significantly fresher
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Scotland W-L with a 4-0 win recently; Curaçao L-D-D-L with minimal scoring output
H2H: Limited data — no strong historical trend to lean on
Stakes: International friendly with moderate motivation; Scotland playing at home boosts confidence
Betting: BTTS unlikely given Curaçao's 0.95 avg goals and two blank sheets in last four; Under 2.5 borderline but 2-0 keeps total at exactly 2, favouring under
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — insufficient H2H history to establish a reliable trend between these two nations.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Curaçao have scored just 0.95 goals per game on average and blanked in two of their last four matches, with both away fixtures ending in defeat. Scotland's defence should be able to contain an attack this limited, making it unlikely Curaçao find the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Total goals of 2 in the projected 2-0 scoreline falls below the 2.5-goal line. The engine projects a controlled, lower-scoring contest.