Chapecoense-sc Predictions
AI-powered match predictions, accuracy tracking, and bookmaker consensus comparisons.
📊 Past Predictions (latest 6)
Palmeiras secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Chapecoense-sc, but the match unfolded in a far tighter contest than our pre-match model anticipated. Paulinho broke the deadlock in the 65th minute with a finish from Felipe Anderson's assist, putting the league leaders on course for a comfortable win. However, the encounter took an unexpected turn when Allan Elias received a red card in the 43rd minute, forcing Palmeiras to absorb considerable pressure with ten men. Despite the numerical disadvantage, the hosts held firm until deep into stoppage time, when Chapecoense converted a penalty through Y. Bolasie in the 90+20th minute—a result that would have marked a dramatic escape for the visitors had it not been for an offside decision or other review. The final scoreline read 1-0 to Palmeiras.
Our prediction of a 3-0 scoreline proved optimistic. While we correctly identified Palmeiras as heavy favourites and accurately called the result direction, the actual margin fell well short of expectations. The early red card fundamentally altered the match's shape; we had anticipated Palmeiras' attacking dominance and Chapecoense's defensive fragility to produce a rout, but the numerical disadvantage compressed the second half and allowed the visitors to generate late pressure. Palmeiras' typically stingy home defence ultimately held, but the match exposed how situational variables—particularly squad discipline—can override underlying quality gaps. The team's resilience in seeing out a man disadvantage deserves credit, even if the prediction accuracy took a hit.
Cruzeiro secured a 2-1 victory over Chapecoense-sc in a match that unfolded largely as expected in direction but with more goals than anticipated. Kaio Jorge opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 27th minute, giving the hosts an early advantage. Cruzeiro extended their lead in the 73rd minute when L. Sinisterra finished after Christian's assist. Chapecoense-sc pulled one back late through Joao Paulo in the 79th minute, assisted by Bruno Pacheco, but the effort fell short of forcing a comeback. The three-goal total exceeded our pre-match expectation of a low-scoring encounter.
Our prediction correctly identified Cruzeiro as the likely winner, with the model assigning them a 66% win probability ahead of kickoff. However, the forecast scorelined at 1-0, underestimating the attacking output both teams would produce. The early 0-0 reading at the seventh minute suggested an open game, yet neither side generated the expected chances in that opening spell according to the xG projections we'd flagged. The penalty conceded by Chapecoense-sc proved pivotal; it broke the deadlock decisively and set the tone for Cruzeiro's control. While we correctly backed the three-point outcome, the 2-1 scoreline demonstrated that even with directional accuracy, margin estimation remains sensitive to match-specific incidents like penalties and the timing of goals relative to defensive shape.
Remo's 3-2 victory over Chapecoense-sc delivered a dramatic finish that defied our pre-match prediction of a 2-1 home win. The match unfolded in two distinct halves, with Chapecoense-sc mounting a compelling fightback before ultimately succumbing to late pressure. Remo's Yago Pikachu struck first in the 16th minute, assisted by Vitor Bueno, but Chapecoense-sc responded through Neto Pessoa's 24th-minute equalizer. The home side completed a turnaround five minutes after the interval when Rafael Carvalheira converted from Pessoa's assist, seemingly positioning them for the victory our model had favored. However, Remo equalized through Jaja in the 51st minute, and Bruno Leonardo's 87th-minute own goal handed Remo their winner in circumstances that no statistical projection can fully anticipate.
Our prediction called the result direction wrong, backing Chapecoense-sc with 47 percent win probability. The 2-1 scoreline we projected was close in goal count—the match contained four goals instead of three—but the final tally favored the visiting side. Several factors contributed to this miss. While both teams' recent form and xG data supported our projection of a tight, low-scoring encounter, the own goal proved decisive in a way that pre-match analysis cannot reliably forecast. Additionally, Remo's capacity to absorb Chapecoense-sc's momentum after falling behind and push forward in the final stages suggested greater tactical resilience than our model had weighted. The both-teams-to-score element we flagged as probable proved prescient, but the specific distribution of goals—and Remo's ability to convert pressure into a winner—represented the deviation from our underlying expectation.
Mirassol and Chapecoense-sc finished level at 1-1 in a match that departed significantly from our pre-match expectations. Eduardo's 71st-minute finish gave the home side what appeared to be a decisive advantage, with Willian Machado providing the assist. However, that lead lasted only ten minutes before Joao Victor's own goal in the 81st minute handed Chapecoense-sc an unlikely equalizer, denying Mirassol what would have been a valuable three points.
Our model predicted a 2-0 Mirassol victory with absolute confidence in a home win, but this result revealed meaningful gaps in the analysis. We correctly identified Mirassol's home advantage and their capacity to build attacking pressure, yet failed to anticipate how defensive vulnerability could undermine that advantage. While a clean sheet at home represents a reasonable expectation for a well-organized Serie A side, the match showed that defensive discipline alone doesn't guarantee victory when chances remain limited. The own goal was an unpredictable element that disrupted what could have been a straightforward home win, but such individual errors reflect the match-to-match variance that statistical models struggle to capture.
The prediction's failure underscores the importance of accounting for Chapecoense-sc's capacity to create problems for defenders despite their away-day struggles. A draw, while statistically less likely than a comfortable home victory, proved more resilient than our assessment suggested. For future matchdays, this serves as a useful reminder that home advantage and attacking structure must be weighed alongside defensive execution and the unpredictability of individual moments.
Fluminense secured a 2-1 victory over relegation-battling Chapecoense-sc, though the margin proved tighter than expected. The hosts broke the deadlock through João Savarino's penalty conversion in the 56th minute, establishing control that looked destined to deliver the comfortable win our model had anticipated. Chapecoense mounted an unlikely response when Enio finished from close range in the 78th, sparked by Marcinho's assist, briefly threatening an upset. Fluminense reasserted dominance through John Kennedy's 86th-minute goal, set up by Alisson, before late drama saw Chapecoense reduced to ten men when Eduardo Doma received a red card deep into stoppage time.
The prediction of a 3-0 scoreline proved directionally correct—Fluminense's dominance was never in doubt—but the model underestimated Chapecoense's ability to breach a compromised defense. Our flagged factors largely held: Fluminense's superior home form and motivation as title contenders showed in their control, while Chapecoense's poor away record and limited attacking threat were evident in their xG profile. However, the visitors did what the pre-match form suggested they shouldn't: they scored. The 2-1 finish sits between our AI projection of 3-0 and the Poisson model's 3-1, suggesting the underlying dominance was accurately captured even if the precise scoreline wasn't. Fluminense's march toward the top two continues, while Chapecoense's struggles persist despite a consolation that came too late to change the outcome.
Botafogo came to Santa Catarina and dismantled Chapecoense-sc in an utterly one-sided affair, winning 4-1 through a clinical performance that saw them establish complete control by halftime. Edenilson opened the scoring in the 10th minute after an assist from Alex Telles, then Matheus Martins made it 2-0 just four minutes later with Danilo providing the service. Edenilson doubled his tally in the 20th minute, again set up by Vitinho, effectively deciding the contest before the first half concluded. Chapecoense-sc pulled one back through Marcinho's 45th-minute effort, which came via a Yoane Bolasie assist, but Botafogo's dominance was never genuinely threatened. Matheus Martins sealed the rout with a second goal in the 80th minute, courtesy of a J. Correa assist, confirming a convincing away victory.
Our model's prediction of a 1-1 draw proved substantially wide of the mark. The prediction failed to anticipate Botafogo's attacking potency and the degree to which they would control the match from start to finish. While we assigned the draw significant probability, the actual flow of play suggested Botafogo's superiority was evident and decisive. Chapecoense-sc offered little resistance in the opening phases, allowing their visitors to establish an early advantage that proved insurmountable. The gap between prediction and outcome reflects a significant shortfall in our ability to capture the underlying quality differential between these sides on the day.