Croatia vs Ghana
Likely line-up






















📖 The Preview
Croatia go into this one as strong favourites and it's not hard to see why, with the numbers giving them a 70% chance of winning. Ghana will make it competitive, they always do at this level, but the prediction points firmly to a 2-0 Croatia victory with both teams not scoring suggesting Ghana struggle to find the net. The markets expect a tight, low-scoring affair overall, but Croatia have enough quality to get the job done and keep things clean at the back.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia Win Value | 8/11 1.75 | 54% | 70% | +16% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.27 | 29% | 19% | -10% |
| Ghana Win | 9/2 5.60 | 17% | 11% | -6% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆕 Fresh standings — no meaningful positions established yet, both sides starting on equal footing
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Croatia WLWLLW with 1.79 avg goals scored; Ghana DWDLLL with only 0.68 avg goals scored and terrible away form DDLLL
H2H: Limited historical data but ELO gap of 324 points is a strong structural indicator of Croatian dominance
Stakes: World Cup group stage — Croatia will be highly motivated to secure points; Ghana facing an uphill battle against superior opposition
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data, but the 324-point ELO gap is one of the largest possible in international football and historically such gaps produce dominant home wins with clean sheets.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
📅 More Upcoming Fixtures
📊 Group L Standings
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Ghana | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Croatia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Panama | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Live Group L table, built from completed results · full group page →